Housing Supply, Tax Policy, Affordability.
The national conversation has moved from building more homes to changing tax settings. Both matter, but neither is a quick fix. The housing system tends to respond slowly, not suddenly.
Each is being positioned as the lever to fix the market. In reality, they are all connected, and progress will not come from a sudden shock but from more incremental changes. Budget announcements next week may have unintended consequences.
🕒 The 60-Second Snapshot
- Another rate hike is live. The RBA met 5 May and raised the cash rate by 25bp to 4.35% in an 8–1 vote. That's three hikes in 2026, following the move to 4.10% in March.
- Inflation: headline number up, underlying measure steady. Q1 2026 CPI came in at 4.6% annually, almost entirely driven by a 33% fuel price surge. The trimmed mean (the RBA's preferred measure) held at 3.3%, unchanged, still above the 2–3% target band.
- The budget is days away and negative gearing is on the chopping block. The government is expected to abolish negative gearing for new investment purchases and replace the 50% CGT discount with indexation. Nothing legislated yet, but the direction seems pretty clear.
What this means for landlords right now: Holding costs are rising, but rental demand remains strong. The structural shortage hasn't changed. We would forgive the Government for not going through with changes to CGT and negative gearing, but it seems that they are pretty focused on the change and less concerned about the consequences.
📈 Market Pulse
Home values slowing, but unevenly. Cotality's April Home Value Index shows national dwelling values rose 0.3% in April , down from 0.6% in March. Perth (+2.1%), Brisbane (+1.1%), and Adelaide (+1.2%) are still running hot. Sydney and Melbourne fell 0.6% each. Two very different markets wearing the same national headline.
Auction clearance rates flagging. Clearance rates hit 52.7% in late March, the lowest since July 2022 according to Cotality data. New listings are down 3.3% year-on-year nationally. Vendors are choosing not to sell, rather than a discount.
All four banks calling a hike. Canstar's live rate tracker confirms ANZ, CBA, and NAB are each forecasting a 25bp rise to 4.35% and then a pause. Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis is more hawkish, calling May, June, and August hikes with a 4.85% peak.
Budget: The Senate gave Chalmers the runway. A Senate Select Committee report tabled in March directly criticised the CGT discount for favouring investors and worsening housing inequality.
🏘️ Rental Market Data
| City | Vacancy Rate — Apr 2026 | Market Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 1.4% | Tight |
| Melbourne | 1.7% | Below balance |
| Brisbane | 1.0% | Tight |
| Darwin | 0.4% | Acute shortage |
| Adelaide | 0.6% | Acute shortage |
| Perth | 0.8% | Tight |
| Hobart | 0.9% | Tight |
| Canberra | 1.6% | Below balance |
| National | 1.0% | Structural shortage |
Source: SQM Research, April 15 2026 release
Suburb Spotlight: Perth Inner Suburbs
Vacancy sits at 0.8% citywide, with inner suburbs like Northbridge, Leederville, and Mount Lawley among the tightest. Properties are leasing quickly and asking rents are up year-on-year.
For landlords with upcoming vacancies, conditions are favourable. though pricing too far above market still leads to empty weeks, which can outweigh any potential rent gain.
😄 The Property Punchline
Australian property owners in 2026:
